The Twilight of the Birthers
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Shortly before ordering the successful hit on Bin Laden Obama released his long form birth certificate. The Washington Post recently conducted a poll to see the impact of this release.
On the one hand, I thought that it might have little impact. After all, it seemed reasonable to think that if the short form did not convince people, then a long form would have no greater effect. On the other hand, since some of the birthers had been demanding the “real” birth certificate as proof, it seemed possible that they would accept the sanctification of their demand as proof.
Interestingly, the Washington Post’s poll results show that there has been a significant change since April 2010. In 2010 20% of the adults polled claimed that Obama was born outside the United States. This has fallen to 10% in 2011. The largest change was among Republicans. In 2010 31% of Republicans claimed they believed Obama was born outside of the US. In 2011 only 14% held this view. For conservative Republicans, the change has been from 35% to 16%. Interestingly, 7% of Democrats, 12% of Independents, and 3% of liberal Democrats still claim they believe he was born outside of the US.
While other factors might be involved in the decline, it seems reasonable to consider that the release of the long form birth certificate had some impact. It also seems reasonable to take into account the fact that certain notable conservatives, such as Rove, have been critical of the birther approach. It is also worth considering the fact that movements generally tend to lose members over time as people move on to other things.
While the percentage of people who believe that Obama was not born in the US has declined significantly since 2010, it is still rather worrying that 10% of those polled still hold to this belief. After all, the evidence seems to be rather overwhelming.
Interestingly, the people who still claim to believe that Obama was not born in the United States tend to admit that they lack definitive evidence for their claim. Rather, they seem to take the line that they have suspicions about Obama’s place of birth. This could be taken as being more of an expression of dislike for Obama as opposed to a significant epistemic failure.
I suspect that the birthers will never vanish completely. After all, conspiracy theories often have an amazing endurance. There are, for example, still people who claim that the moon landings were faked.
A Philosopher's Blog 
Babson’s first law: poor economic policies leading to high unemployment invariably produce conspiracy theories.
Look on the bright side. Only 10% of the birthers remain to flog that old nag. Those who have decided to accept the long form can devote more of their time to the climate change “debate”.
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There have been conspiracy theories as long as I can remember. Would it be fair to conclude that we’re in a perpetual state of “poor economic policies leading to high unemployment”?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conspiracy_theories
“Would it be fair to conclude that we’re in a perpetual state of “poor economic policies leading to high unemployment?”
No, and maybe Mike can provide the appropriate numerical reference to the fallacy.
Look on the bright side. Only 10% of the birthers remain to flog that old nag. Those who have decided to accept the long form can devote more of their time to the climate change “debate”.
. . . . . .
Also worth noting: Given the poll figures you cite, it would seem that being an “independent” or a liberal doesn’t confer total immunity against stupidity.
Cancel 9:00am post please. 😦
As I see it, conspiracy theories are twins to superstition and cousins to religious belief.
We’re innately sensitive to patterns in our experience–the seeds of beliefs–but we’re not so good at discerning between when they express necessary or merely accidental relations between events.
The trouble with conspiracy theories, superstition, and religion is that they all involve beliefs that have cut themselves off from experience — God transcends experience, ghosts can’t be sensed unless they want to be, Big Brother is pulling the strings and hiding its tracks.
These flawed beliefs persistently endure because they all involve a rejection of the only means available to correct them.
While some religious beliefs are grounded in the same “reasoning” as conspiracy theories, it seems unfair to some religious folk to lump them together. After all, there are actually some rather good arguments for certain religious beliefs, such as those involving the soul, God, an afterlife, an objective moral order and so on.
I certainly would not want to lump Aquinas, Anselm, and Descartes in with conspiracy theorists. Well, maybe Descartes. 🙂
However, you are right to point out conspiracy theorists and some religious folk do practice things like “moving the goal post” and thus refuse to accept any possible dis confirmation.
Point taken, though the rather good arguments I’ve seen for the soul, God, or an afterlife have either involved radical redefinitions of those terms or argumentation that is more admirably creative than it is sound or cogent.
Good point. Spinoza is an excellent example of this. He does have a rather good argument for God’s existence-but it is not the sort of God you’d learn about in Sunday school.
Of course you would acknowledge that not only ‘religious folk’ do this, and sometimes dishonest people will say that honest people are doing it when they are not, so that the dishonesty of the dishonest and unethical (nay, sometimes downright criminal) remains protected. Not even hidden, necessarily, just protected. There are legally empowered people who, though they could take away the protection, do not want to. Not sure if this is anything to do with anything, it is just a knee jerk reaction, but true, nevertheless, even if completely out of context.
Our US president had already showed his US birth Certificate to;
1. Get a US Passport; http://swampland.blogs.time.com/2008/03/20/obamas_passport_files_hacked/
2. Become a US Senator;
I feel sorry for all the little Birthers, It’s not their fault; it’s your families’ fault that taught you that you were better than other people based on race, creed ethnicity, color, nationality or sex, in short they engrained in you their hate (what a legacy).
But you know at some point you need to grow up and act like an adult and think for yourself and distinguish what is true and what is BS.
But there is where the little Birthers find yourself because we all know it was never about a birth certificate or grades, because we all know you want to go around wearing white sheets, burn crosses and hang people who are not like you, we know that your growth is stunted in your hate, and hate is what this is all about, you will never win anymore, and I feel sorry for all of you.
I can only imagine when our President is re-elected what you phonies will lie about next. Oh, and just know, if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and sounds like a duck, it’s a duck, the little Birthers are a bunch of racists!
To be fair to the birthers, it seems unreasonable to claim that they are all racists. After all, Bill Clinton was also the target of various conspiracy theories and he is quite white. The 9/11 conspiracy theorists go after W. Bush, thus indicating that conspiracy theorists are equal opportunity types in this regard.
That said, racism should not be dismissed as a causal factor in this case.
the little Birthers are a bunch of racists!
That is hogwash. I am a JEW, have dated men of EVERY race, inc black. It has ZERO to do with racism.
The leftists started the ‘birther’ conspiracy.
Michelle Obama said that her husbands ‘home country is Kenya’.
Gov Bill Richardson said that “Obama is an immigrant”
Obama said in 2006 “It is good to be back home in Kenya”
If ANYTHING, ‘birthers’ took the leftists at their word.
Why?
Because leftists are holier than thou and are always right, never wrong.
**NEVER WRONG**
Mad,
Thanks for the comment. However, there seem to be some problems with your argument. First, your inference seems to be “I am not a racist, therefore the group I belong to is not a racist” would seem to be a hasty generalization fallacy. After all, what is true of you need not extend to the whole group.
Home country need not be “country where he was born.” After all, people whose ancestors are from Europe also talk about the “home country.” I would not, however, take this as grounds for demanding a birth certificate.
Even if it were true that the lefties started the birther thing, it would not follow that it is correct.
I’m pretty sure the leftists get things wrong. In any case, launching an ad hominem on the lefties doesn’t prove your point.
“Ad Hominem”, No ad hominem is here.
{ “I am not a racist, therefore the group I belong to is not a racist” would seem to be a hasty generalization fallacy }
It is also a fallacy to assume that ALL birthers are racists as well, just b/c a small # of them are.
But, now that we have moved over to the racial issue.. Do these holier than thou leftists REALIZE how many of their fellow American brethren they have hurt BY generalizing, such as the commenter did above?
I have been called a Jew-nazi, the Jew-kkk, racist, bigot, phobe of every sort.. Did people think this did not hurt?
Well, they were wrong. In the beginning of not liking Obama policy, I cried MANY tears–too many to count. Being called a racist and all of this other jargon that I was called, my friends were called was sickening. Totally SICKENING.
I championed causes in my home-town, trying to help ILLEGALS, GET LEGAL. Helped 3 different Americans of African descent get employment in the 1980’s. Only to be called a RACIST just because I do not like Obamas terrible policies.
I hated Bush policy as well, Clinton before him and Bush 41 before him. But, I am a racist now, b/c I HATE Obamas policies and I think he is a afraud.
It is true that leftists started it. Mrs Obama said her husbands ‘home country is in Kenya’. Gov Bill Richardson said that ‘Obama is an immigrant’. Obama HIMSELF said that “It is good to be back home, in Kenya”.
All of those people are leftists.
All of those people had ME convinced that they were not lying.
But, I am now a racist.
I have covered racism, now, to the point that I didnt know how racism actually is terrible against white people, b/c like every other white person, I was brainwashed to believe that racism against white people is OK.
This is the “CHANGE” that this leader has brought upon people.
What “birthers” are to the right, “racers” are to the left. (“Racers” are those who ascribe all opposition to Obama’s policies as motivated by racism.)
Well, TJ, whatever they are, they have hurt their fellow Americans, deeply.
That would also be a hasty generalization. However, to infer that the birther movement has racist elements based on the available evidence would not be a fallacy.
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